# SIAT turns forty, and our research is among the three finalists

Author: — to be defined  
Published on: 2026-09-18T07:00:00+00:00

> The Italian Society of Technical Analysis was founded in Milan in 1986: 2026 is its fortieth year. “A Falsificationist Cycle Analysis of Cryptocurrencies” is one of the three finalist works for the SIAT Award 2026 — a protocol that puts the founding claims of three schools of cycle analysis to the test, and refutes its own as well.

The Italian Society of Technical Analysis was founded in Milan in 1986 as a
non-profit association, to promote knowledge of the technical analysis of
markets by developing research and training. In 2026 it turns forty — forty
years in which the school of technical analysis has had, in Italy, a place where
it could be taught and argued about.

At the SIAT Award 2026 our work — “A Falsificationist Cycle Analysis of
Cryptocurrencies” — is one of the three finalists.

## What is in the running

Not a forecast, and not a new method: a **falsification protocol**.

For more than half a century the cycle analysis of markets has produced rich
conceptual frameworks, and has handed them down almost always as alternative
doctrines: the classical American school of J. M. Hurst, the Italian school of
the battleplan and the inverse cycle, John Ehlers' quantitative analysis in the
frequency domain. They get adopted; they rarely get tested together on the same
sample.

The work takes each founding claim of the three schools and holds it to the same
yardstick, on a multi-asset sample: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana since 2017,
extended to thirty-seven instruments in six classes and to six stock indices
with long daily history.

## The part that outlives the results

These are the four requirements the protocol imposes, and they are worth more
than any single outcome:

- **the null value of a measure is measured, not assumed.** Surrogate series are
  built that preserve the power spectrum and destroy the temporal structure, and
  one looks at where the observed value falls inside that cloud;
- **a conditional rate must be accompanied by its own marginal**, that is, by
  the same condition counted on the cases the event does not select. Without it,
  a high number only says that the condition is frequent;
- **a negative outcome does not count until it has been shown that the test
  would recognize the phenomenon if it were there.** A blind test falsifies
  nothing: it is silent;
- **every level is measured on the timeframe that resolves it.** The daily
  timeframe does not separate the short levels of a hierarchy, and measuring
  them there changes the very numbers under discussion.

## What falls, and what holds

Some of the most quoted claims fall: fixed harmonic nesting and the principle of
harmonicity, the sequential mean-reversion of durations, the canonical threshold
for connecting cycles, the peak hold. Two claims of the Italian school fall by
tautology — the inverse cycle, whose operational definition is not falsifiable
before the fact, and the unconditional swing, whose success condition turns out
to be true in every measured parent cycle, with and without a swing.

What holds, with convergence across asset classes: the cyclic commonality of
durations, cyclical translation as an indicator of polarity, the violation of
the previous peak, and, in a rewritten form, two signals of the Italian corpus.

## And the most uncomfortable part

The same yardstick applies to the regularities the work could claim as its own,
and there it is harsher than with other people's schools.

The short-cycle tail does not leave the surrogate cloud in any of the fifteen
combinations of asset and level, and at the intermediate levels the observed
value lies below the median: it is what the detector produces, not what the
market does. The same holds for the deviation from the nominal period and for
the position of the peak inside the cycle.

The work's own starting axiom falls as well — the one by which a quaternary
structure would be a binary of binaries: the trough that would separate the two
binaries is the lowest of the three internal ones in 1.3 per cent of the 557
measured cycles, against 33.3 per cent for pure indifference — and inside the
band that the same detector produces on noise.

## Why we publish it this way

Because it is the only form in which a nomination is worth telling. The
recognition, if it comes, is for a protocol that refuted its own starting
hypotheses before refuting anyone else's — and that is the part which stays
useful to a reader, regardless of how it ends.

The twenty-five-page summary, the replication materials and the peer review are
in the publications, for anyone with an account. The data, the period and the
method are in the card alongside, as on every note of ours.

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